Is It Getting Too Late for a Strong Nor'easter?

Winter only has about five weeks remaining, and so far, the Northeast has escaped the season without a blow from a classic nor'easter to produce heavy snow, strong winds and coastal flooding across the region.

While all of the major cities along the Interstate 95 corridor have picked up accumulating snow on a few occasions this winter, none of the snowmakers have been particularly heavy, and more often than not, rain has been the dominant precipitation type from storms moving through the Northeast.

As a result, most cities in the region are running below average for snowfall this season.

Baltimore (11.1 inches) is nearly 3 inches below average, Philadelphia (10.3 inches) is 4 inches below average and New York City (8.7 inches) is more than 7 inches below average. Boston's meager 4.7 inches of snow through Feb. 12 – 2.2 inches of which fell Tuesday from Winter Storm Maya – is nearly 2 feet below average.

One exception has been Washington D.C., where its 14 inches of snow is nearly 3 inches above average. Most of that snow fell during Winter Storm Gia Jan. 12-13, when Reagan National Airport measured 10.3 inches.

You might be wondering if it's too late for these Northeast cities to make up for their snowfall deficits.

A typical nor'easter weather pattern, depicted on the map at the top of this article, features a southward plunge of the jet stream over the central and eastern United States. An area of low pressure then forms near or off the East Coast and gets steered north or northeastward by the jet-stream winds aloft.

That pattern has been hard to come by this winter, which is why we haven't yet seen that "blockbuster" Northeast snowstorm that many snow lovers wish for every year.

Although time is running out, note that snow-packed nor'easters can still happen into March, as last year proved, though that was an anomaly.

From March 2-22, 2018, a parade of four nor'easters hammered the northeastern U.S., dumping heavy snow, knocking out power to millions and causing severe coastal flooding.

The climatological peak for major Northeast snowstorms is from late January through February, according to NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information.

However, two of the three highest-rated snowstorms on the Northeast Snowfall Impact Scale (NESIS) occurred in early March, with the clear front-runner being the Superstorm of March 12-14, 1993.

NESIS ranks the impact of Northeast snowstorms based on snowfall amounts and the population affected. In general, widespread heavy snowfall over highly populated areas produces a high NESIS value.

So if you're still patiently awaiting a classic nor'easter before the warm weather arrives, there's a chance March may deliver, but nothing is guaranteed in weather.