Although Tropical Storm Bud will continue to weaken, it will threaten western Mexico with flooding rainfall this week.
Bud became the second major hurricane of the season in the East Pacific basin on Monday morning and reached peak strength on Tuesday morning with sustained winds of 130 mph (209 kp/h) before weakening significantly.
Relatively slow movement over cooler water will cause Bud to weaken further as it approaches the coast of southern Baja California Thursday night.
Despite weakening and remaining over the open ocean through Thursday, Bud will bring heavy rainfall to parts of Mexico.
Downpours are forecast on Thursday across parts of western Jalisco, Nayarit, Sinaloa and southern Baja California Sur.
Showers and thunderstorms will spread across much of Baja California Sur and neighboring parts of northwestern Mexico from Thursday into the weekend. There will be an increased risk for flash flooding and mudslides in southern Baja California and northwestern Mexico.
Rainfall amounts of 50-100 mm (2-4 inches) will be common with local amounts up to 200 mm (8 inches).
Small rivers and streams may quickly rise out of their banks and turn into deadly torrents.
Flooded streams and rivers may wash out roadways, isolating communities for several days or longer.
The hardest hit areas may experience mudslides capable of engulfing communities and destroying roadways.
Rough seas and dangerous rip currents will threaten beaches from Manzanillo to Mazatlan, as well as southern Baja California Sur.
Boaters and bathers should use extreme caution and heed all small craft and beach advisories as they are issued.
If caught in a rip current, it is best to swim parallel to shore until free of its influence.
Showers and thunderstorms will spread across much of Baja California and neighboring parts of northwestern Mexico from Thursday into the weekend. There will be an increased risk for flash flooding and mudslides in southern Baja California and northwestern Mexico.
Despite weakening, Bud may still produce some locally damaging winds in southern Baja California as it approaches or makes landfall later this week.
Damage to trees and power outages are the most likely impacts. Some locations could be without power for multiple days in the hardest-hit areas.
Some moisture will also be drawn northward into the United States. Such moisture would be beneficial to drought-stricken areas of the southwestern U.S., but could also create flash flooding issues if there is too much rain too quickly.
AccuWeather Meteorologists anticipate that the East Pacific basin will remain active this season with an above-normal number of tropical cyclones forecast.